⚡ Sopron Blackout Risk Monitor

Sopron, Győr-Moson-Sopron, Hungary · 47.6817°N, 16.5845°E

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Live grid data: not configured — showing weather-only estimate ⚙ Live grid data

Grid proxy Worker URL (see entsoe-proxy/README.md)

Optional. Deploy the small proxy in entsoe-proxy/ to blend two live sources into the risk score: ENTSO-E (needs your own free API token) for load/import data, and MAVIR's real-time chart (no token needed at all) for actual-vs-planned load deviation. Either can work independently of the other. Without the proxy, the estimate is weather-only.

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estimated risk, now

Condition

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Temperature

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Wind / Gusts

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Precipitation

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Humidity

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Peak-hour demand

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Risk factor breakdown — what's driving the current estimate

Next 48 hours — hover a bar for details, dashed lines mark peak-demand hours

Low (0–14%) Moderate (15–34%) Elevated (35–59%) High (60%+)

How this is calculated: There is no public "blackout probability" feed — not even Electricity Maps publishes one; it shows grid carbon intensity and power mix. This page instead builds an independent, transparent heuristic from live weather forecasts for Sopron (Open-Meteo, no key required), combining: wind gust severity (line/tree faults), storm & precipitation intensity (codes for thunderstorms, freezing rain, heavy snow), extreme-temperature demand stress on the grid, icing conditions, and peak-demand hours (07–09 & 17–21 local). It also pulls Hungary's day-ahead wholesale electricity price from Energy-Charts (Fraunhofer ISE, no key needed) as a "Wholesale price signal" — since day-ahead prices are published in advance, this is the one factor that's genuinely forward-looking across the full 48-hour timeline, not just weather. Price spikes tend to reflect a tight supply/demand balance before it becomes a physical problem. Optionally, connecting the small proxy in entsoe-proxy/ (⚙ Live grid data above) blends in two more real, current-moment sources: the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (needs your own free API token) for actual Hungarian system load and import dependency as a "Grid stress" factor; and MAVIR's own real-time system-load chart (no token needed at all) for actual load running above the operator's own plan, as a "Load deviation" factor. The MAVIR figure comes from reverse-engineering their public SVG chart's pixel coordinates rather than a documented API (credit to Kisem/ha-mavir-stats for the approach) — it's MAVIR's own first-party number, but more fragile than the ENTSO-E and Energy-Charts feeds since there's no schema guarantee if their chart rendering changes. Without either proxy source, the estimate is weather-only. Either way, treat the percentage as a rough planning signal, not an official warning. For Hungary's actual grid status, see MAVIR directly. Data refreshes automatically every 15 minutes.